Risk Analysis Tools Successful in Project Management

by Paul S. Ray, Ph.D., PE, CSP, C. Eng. (U.K.),
Surya Prasanna Kumar Chodimella, Balaji Pattabiraman and Ramji Srinivasan
Tuscaloosa, Alabama
 

The relevant data on risk analysis application was collected for successful projects completed during the past ten years (from 1992 to 2001). This duration reflected the period in which the Internet became popular in industry, having more cases recorded on the Internet for the years 1998 to 2001. A total of 300 cases were reviewed to obtain 135 cases that offered fairly complete details for study. These cases presented successful applications of risk management for a variety of industries.

The recorded information was then analyzed to identify the risk management techniques used, along with the significant factors that contributed to the success of the approach. A number of iterations were conducted to identify the techniques applied in these cases. On many occasions, the information contained in the published papers was not complete and/or not transparent. In these cases, the papers were further reviewed to identify the implied factual details, which then were recorded on the form. The cases were then classified according to Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) codes and were found to match seven different categories.

Results
The frequencies of the risk management techniques used for each SIC code industry were then determined. An illustration of this classification of the risk assessment techniques used for the selected industries is given in Table 2.

 

The frequency percentages were based on the fractions of the total number of citations for techniques used in each category. For 25 cases in the General Contractors category, there were a total of 33 citations, as multiple citations existed in individual cases. Eleven out of these 33 citations were for Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), which gave a 33.33% occurrence for FTA. The risk assessment techniques most frequently used in the seven selected industry categories were as follows:

• General Contractors: The most frequently used techniques were FTA (frequency 33.3%), followed by Preliminary Hazard Analysis (frequency 27.2%) and Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis (frequency 15.2%). The factors that contributed to the success were the technical knowledge of the relevant industry, familiarity with the risk management process and support of the top management.

• Heavy Construction: About 40.4% of the citations were for FTA, followed by Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis (19.1%), and about 11.9% used Preliminary Hazard Analysis. The factors that contributed to the success were technical expertise and expertise in hazard analysis.

• Motor Freight Transportation: About 37.4% used Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis, followed by Preliminary Hazard Analysis (29.1%) and FTA (about 12.5%). The factors that contributed to the success were technical expertise and expertise in the field of risk management.

• Railroad, Water and Air Transportation: Preliminary Hazard Analysis was cited in about 31.5% of cases, followed by FTA (26.3%) and Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis (21.0%). The factors that contributed to the success were engineering and technical expertise, familiarity with the risk management process and support of the top management.

• Manufacturing Industries: FTA was cited for about 33.3%, followed by Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis (29.6%) and FMEA (7.4%). The factors that contributed to the success were expertise in Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis, system safety analysis, and risk analysis.

• Telecommunication and Information Technology: Software risk analysis and FTA both were cited for 27.3%, followed by Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis (18.4%). The factors that contributed to the success were expertise in system safety and Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis.

• Logistics, E-Business and Supply Chain Services: Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis was cited in 63.7% of the cases, followed by FTA (21.2%) and Team Approach (9.1%). The factors that contributed to the success were technical expertise in Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis, broader knowledge of the various phases of the industry, and expertise in risk analysis.

• Overall Usage in All These Industries: The risk analysis tool most frequently used in all seven categories of industries was found to be Cost/Benefit Risk Analysis (57%), followed by Fault Tree Analysis (55%) and Preliminary Hazard Analysis (30%). In most of these cases, support of the top management was cited as one of the prime factors in achieving success in the application of risk analysis for the projects.